Analysis on Neuralstem.
I’m very conflicted on this equity. Whether to trust my value, or to realize that its price is close to its 52 week low and the only way looks to be up.
Value vs. Price — ain’t that the conundrum?
Neuralstem March 28, 2016
Category: BioTech Thoughts
Current Analysis
4/20/16:
Last few weeks have been quite challenging and haven’t had a chance to work on any valuation at all. Plan is to get back on track the week of 4/25.
3/28/16:
CUR uploaded. CUR
Now to find something else. I’m too lazy to go back to CLBS — I think.
I’ve also figured out that it takes me around 60 hours per report. Working on it 2 hours a day makes it 10 hours a week. It realistically takes me about 6 weeks to finish a report. Dang, there goes my weekends.
CUR preliminary analysis is about $0.63. I’ll have to do a more through analysis, but not looking like it’ll change a whole lot.
As of Feb 30,2016: CUR
and then maybe CLBS.
Leave comments here, if there’s a stem cell company you’re interested in that you’d like my analysis on. I can’t guarantee when/how/ or if it’ll be done. But rest assured, I will try to get it done.
CLBS
Just as a quick exercise research, an initial value opinion was set at $1.07 in Mid December,2015. The value was based solely on Metastatic Melanoma data. Since then, the stock has lost quite a bit of ground. Perhaps a candidate for a closer look again.
ATHX
This one is doing a lot better. Report done on September 2015 when the stock was trading for around $1.32. As of this posting, it is trading at $1.73.
Still quite a bit of lessons to be learnt from this one. The triggers that have been expected just don’t have any gunpowder.
STEM
Our first attempt at this. The report looks kinda rudimentary but it is what it is. It’ll be better as we go along. Garden Pitch Promise.
If you’re following this company, you’ll realize that the predictions on the future cash flows are obviously misguided. The report was done in August 2015, and the purchase price around then was $.39, and currently is trading for $.32. The triggers that were assumed obviously did not trigger anything.
This report needs to be revisited and a section on lessons learnt needs to be created. Not done with this yet, to be continued.